Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Amazon
There seems to be some sorcery brewing behind Amazon shares. Yesterday, the online retailer’s stock shot to a record high, trading above $100 for the first time in anticipation of strong third-quarter results to come after the bell.
Even though Amazon reported a year-over-year profit that quadrupled, beating analyst estimates, and sales that rose 41% to $3.26 billion, shares fell as much as 16% by mid-Wednesday to $86.
Could Harry Potter be the culprit?
In the third quarter, Amazon sold 2.5 million copies of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, the seventh book in J.K. Rowling’s series about the young wizard, making it the company’s largest new product release.
Amazon investors refused to get caught under the spell of high sales. Deathly Hollows sales, even at 2.5 million, were slightly below break-even.
The company’s U.S. gross margin fell nearly 26%, or 150 basis points from the previous year, and 40 basis points less than expected for the quarter.
Citibank analysts estimated that Harry Potter sales, or lack thereof, may have contributed roughly 30 basis points of the decline, which marks the largest year-over-year margin decline for Amazon since last year’s second quarter.
CIBC World Markets said that weaker-than-expected Harry Potter sales offset gains to operating income.
RBC Capital Markets, however, dispelled the little wizard’s impact on an online giant like Amazon. “Even setting aside growth attributable to Harry Potter and attachments, growth in North American media accelerated yet again and the company continues to execute well with increased product selection, better customer experience and the expansion of the third-party platform,” said analyst Jordan Rohan.
Bear Stearns analyst, Robert Peck agreed. “North American gross margins contracted significantly even when adjusting for the negative impact from Harry Porter. If those trends remain consistent, then significant margin expansion is likely to be a challenge for Amazon to achieve,” Peck said.
So perhaps Amazon’s slumping shares are less a result of Harry Potter necromancy and simply a reflection of the harrowing market for heavyweight online retailers, which traded lower across the board on Wednesday.
The saga continues. –Melinda Peer

Markets-hub.com