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Archive for November, 2007

U.S. consumers prefer their good ol’ Budweiser

November 30, 2007 By: Greg Saulnier Category: General No Comments →

As office parties and Christmas celebrations abound, what will U.S. consumers find themselves reaching for this season? Will they grab the good ol’ Budweiser, or reach for old friends Jack Daniels and Jim Beam?

If the latest quarterly results are any indication, looks like Jack and Jim will be left out in the cold.

A little over a month ago, Anheuser-Busch flexed some muscle amid an economy riddled with subprime woes and massive writedowns as it reported a third-quarter sales increase of 7.9% and profits that topped Wall Street expectations. When looked at from a domestic point of view, the company’s U.S. beer volume increased by 600,000 barrels, or 2%.

However, the same cannot be said for Brown-Forman, whose line includes the Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Finlandia Vodka and Southern Comfort Brands. Though the alcoholic beverage bottler did surpass analysts’ earnings per share estimates by 4 cents a share, the results were largely driven by international consumer trends.

Jack Daniel’s U.S. depletion volume, which by Brown-Forman’s own admission is an approximate measure of consumer demand, “modestly declined” for the quarter, as did Southern Comfort’s depletion volume, which experienced a low-single digit decline in the U.S.

“In general, domestic spirits industry growth has slowed somewhat, while wine and beer are growing at improved rates, thereby taking share from spirits according to Brown-Forman,” Davenport Equity Research said. The firm also noted that the current macroeconomic environment partly explains the slowdown, as consumers are feeling short on cash and are therefore trading down to beer and wine while consuming more at home than on-premise.

Main Street is not the only place that Bud is favored. Brown Forman’s stock was changing hands at $70.67 in mid-afternoon trading Friday, down 1.2% since the end of August. Bud’s stock, however, was trading at $52.46, up 5.8% over the last 3 months.

This is not to say that Jackie D and Jimmy Beam find themselves without friends these days, as global consumption is still on the rise. Both Jack Daniel’s and Southern Comfort experienced low-single digit consumption growth on a worldwide basis. As a matter of fact, Davenport admits that the international spirits market remains strong and recommends investors buy shares of Brown-Forman as it is “well positioned to capitalize on such strength.”

Nevertheless, as far as U.S. consumers are concerned - it’s their good ol’ Bud that they’ll be seeing this holiday season.

YouTube: More than 2.5 billion served (in September)

November 30, 2007 By: Gabriel Madway Category: General No Comments →

In a seemingly never ending quest to amuse themselves, Americans watched more than 9 billion videos online in September, with nearly 75% of U.S. Internet users - or 136 million people - tuning in at some point, according to data released Friday by comScore.

Make no mistake, Americans are not exactly ditching their televisions. The average online viewer watched about three hours of video during the month, whereas the average American household has a TV set on for more than eight hours a day.

But online video is definitely catching on. And it comes as no surprise where most people are heading to find their videos: YouTube. The Google-owned site continues to be the dominant player in the online video market, with a 27.6% market share in September and a whopping 2.5 billion videos viewed, comScore said.

News Corp.’s Fox Interactive Media ranked second with 387 million videos viewed, for a 4.2% market share, followed by Yahoo Inc. sites with 381 million videos viewed, or a 4.1% market share, and Viacom Digital, with 304 million videos, or a 3.3% share.

All told, almost 70 million people watched a video at YouTube in September, while more than 38 million people tuned into News Corp.’s MySpace to watch.

Hicks to stay a Red, for now

November 30, 2007 By: Padraic Cassidy Category: General No Comments →

American millionaires buying up top-flight English soccer clubs was the faddish investment of the last few years. Malcolm Glazer, owner of NFL franchise Tampa Bay Buccaneers, bought out Manchester United for $1.5 billion in 2005; Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner acquired Aston Villa for about $120 million in 2006; and Tom Hicks and George Gillett picked up Liverpool for $500 million last February. 

But now, Hicks looks as if he wants his payout and has valued the club at about $2 billion.

A report in the U.K.’s Daily Mirror said the “staggering £1 billion” estimate for Liverpool “is seen as ridiculous” by analysts.

Liverpool, in the middle of planning a new stadium, rubbished the claim that Hicks was ready to sell.

But the efforts to secure $1 billion needed for the new stadium for the Reds, and the refinancing to supplant the loan Hicks used to take over Liverpool - due in 2009 - both come at a terrible time in the credit markets.

The leveraged buyout baron may be running into trouble in the current credit crunch, and the temptation to sell will be exacerbated by the group that he beat out in the bidding to acquire Liverpool.

Dubai International Capital, an investment group headed by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, could be ready to pounce, with no worries about the credit crisis.

Friday’s Market Focus

November 30, 2007 By: Padraic Cassidy Category: Morning Market Focus No Comments →

fridays-market-focus

Wall Street is on track Friday to wrap up November on a positive note after a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke bolstered the view interest rates are set to fall further.

But Dell Inc. is set to underperform after reporting disappointing results and a cautious outlook.

According to spread bettors IG Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to open up 84 points at 13,395. Separately, S&P 500 futures rose 10.30 points to 1,481.70, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 17.50 points to 2,118.

On Thursday, Wall Street extended its rally with modest gains in the major indexes following two days of sharp advances, despite economic readings that painted a mixed picture of the economy. Though the indexes rose, declining issues narrowly outpaced advancers on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Dow rose 22.28, or 0.17%, to 13,311.73. The S&P 500 index rose 0.70, or 0.05%, to 1,469.72. The Nasdaq composite index rose 5.22, or 0.20%, to 2,668.13. The benchmark 10-year yield slipped back below the 4% mark, to 3.942%

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Personal income for October, 8:30 a.m. ET, 0.3% estimate
  • Personal consumption expenditures index for October, 8:30 a.m. ET, 0.3% estimate
  • Chicago purchasing managers’ index for November, 9:45 a.m. ET, 50.3 estimate
  • Construction spending for October, 10 a.m. ET, -0.1% estimate

Caution sparks late selling in Dell

November 29, 2007 By: Michael Baron Category: Earnings No Comments →

Dell shares are off plus 6% afterhours despite a 27% increase in net income for its fiscal third quarter. The culprit is the company’s almost gentle warning that near-term results could be hurt by a slower decline in component costs than it was expecting and a seasonal shift in product mix to U.S. consumer and international regions. No specific numerical guidance was given.

Excluding unusual items, it looks like the company’s latest profit was in line with analyst estimates. That sounds ok but Dell seems to have been way ahead on the topline, reporting revenue of $15.65 billion vs. the Wall Street consensus of $15.35 billion. Analysts will be asking why the strong sales didn’t translate into more profits. In addition, revenue from Dell’s U.S. consumer business fell 6% in the latest quarter. Not a big positive for what’s one of the company’s five “key” business priorities.

And finally, Dell said its performance “may be adversely impacted” in the future as it take steps to focus on these priorities. Again, no specifics. It also believes it will continue to incur costs from restructuring as it reduces headcount “where appropriate” and invests in infrastructure and acquisitions. The good news seems to be that it plans to resume its share buyback program in early December. Looking at the late trading, the stock is now breaking below $26, those repurchases could come a bit cheaper than the company would probably like.

A fishy forecast for Del Monte

November 29, 2007 By: Greg Saulnier Category: Earnings No Comments →

Shares of Del Monte Foods Co. slumped Thursday after a weak second-quarter report and a lowered outlook for the year fueled analyst concerns about the impact of rising fish costs and Del Monte’s ability to forecast them.

The stock dropped 7% to $9.04 in afternoon action and is off 18% year-to-date.

Del Monte, whose brands include StarKist tuna, Contadina canned tomato products and Milkbone dog biscuits, reported lower second-quarter earnings than analysts had predicted and cut its profit outlook for the year.

Morgan Stanley hearkened back to its downgrade of Del Monte to underweight on Monday in its reaction to the report, saying it continues to believe fish costs will remain “the key ‘watch-out’ for” in fiscal years 2008 and 2009.

The firm repeated its call on current skipjack tuna prices, which it said were well above the expectations Del Monte management held when they initially gave their financial outlook after the first quarter.

Morgan Stanley, which has a price target on the stock of $9, also noted that Pet Products operating income at the company fell 23.6% after five straight quarters of double-digit growth.

There was also consternation at Bear Stearns, which maintained a market weight rating on the shares. The firm said it’s increasingly concerned about Del Monte’s financial forecasting as this was the “latest in a series of quarters after which Del Monte lowered guidance.”

The broker expects what it called Del Monte’s “extraordinarily cheap” valuation to give the shares a boost at some point, however, so it’s hesitant to lower its rating.

Walgreens: We dont care(mark)

November 29, 2007 By: Christie Rizk Category: General No Comments →

Walgreens tried to make CVS Caremark look cheap on Thursday, and instead ended up making a big deal out of what most people consider a really small problem.

Walgreens, whose slogan is “The Pharmacy America Trusts,” withdrew as a pharmacy provider for four prescription plans in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, citing “unreasonably low and below-market” payment rates by CVS Caremark.

“Leaving a benefits plan is an extraordinary step for us, but it demonstrates how extraordinarily low our payments were from CVS Caremark. We can’t continue accepting reimbursement rates that are drastically below market, while offering patients needed special services such as 24-hour pharmacy access and drive-thru pharmacies,” Walgreens said.

The drugstore chain said it recently received a new and improved rate from CVS Caremark for another plan it manages that was also paying below market rate, but that CVS Caremark had declined to to do the same for the other four plans.

“In an effort to be as open and transparent as possible in negotiations, we even offered to open our books directly to the employer groups and show them how much our pharmacies are paid by CVS Caremark,” said Walgreens. “Unfortunately, CVS Caremark wouldn’t allow us to do that.”

Walgreens’ statement made CVS Caremark sound like a company so intent on putting the competition out of business with low reimbursements that it was putting the health of patients at risk.

But analyst Neil Currie from UBS Investment Research apparently disagreed. “Tactical or overblow - we feel the latter,” the firm’s note to clients said. “Changes to prescription drug benefit plans happen yearly. CVS followed normal procedure on behalf of its clients.”

UBS rates CVS a buy with a $50 price target and Walgreens a neutral with a $44 price target.

CVS Caremark spokeswoman Carolyn Castel, in a statement to Thomson Financial News, said, “We can say that we have repeatedly reached out to Walgreens to resolve the matter and regret that they have chosen to terminate their participation in the retail networks of the four clients targeted in the Midwest.”

Both companies’ stocks are taking a hit, though - CVS Caremark is down 3.4% to $40.10 and Walgreens is down 2.5% to $37.37.

Radical reaction to Sears stumble

November 29, 2007 By: Greg Saulnier Category: Earnings No Comments →

With shares of Sears Holdings Corp. sinking to levels not seen since March 2005, famed investor and company Chairman Eddie Lampert’s reputation is taking a big hit. Too bad there’s no margin improvement plan in the “Wish Book” this year.

When discount retailer Kmart filed for bankruptcy protection in early 2002, Lampert’s ESL Investment hedge fund rushed in with financing that saved the day. In a mere 15 months, after asset sales, store closings and layoffs, Kmart was able placate its creditors with its reorganization and pull out of Chapter 11 in May 2003. Lampert assumed the role of chairman and was lauded for turning the chain around.  

His second hero-of-the-day maneuver followed less than a year later, when he swooped in on Sears Roebuck & Co. on Nov. 17, 2004, and merged the two retailers into Sears Holdings Corp. The combined company did well until its fiscal first-quarter results in May 2007, when it missed Wall Street’s profit view. Shares proceeded to drop roughly 39% over the next six months. That’s where things stood before Thursday’s gut punch.

The company came in with a huge miss - a penny profit versus Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 50 cents - and cited the lethal combination of declining same-store sales and weak gross margins. Sears even quantified the gross-margin disparity, saying it experienced a decline of $223 million.

Credit Suisse reacted quickly and bluntly, saying there was “nothing good”  to pull out of the report. It slashed its price target to $140 from $175 and raised questions about the company’s ability to continue to function in its present configuration. “It should be clear to investors that if Sears continues to try to make it as a retailer, it will likely not happen,” the firm told clients. The stock dipped to $98.25 at its low point Thursday, falling more than 15% on heavy volume.

Credit Suisse, however, maintained an outperform rating, saying it believes the board (Lampert really) knows its options and will make decisions that add value. The firm sees three possible scenarios - staying a retailer (bad idea), buying more shares to effectively take the company private (a way to escape criticism) or selling off some of the assets that still have value, such as Land’s End and its Canadian operations (Credit Suisse’s vote).  

Regardless, this swoon has taken the shine off Lampert’s achievement with Kmart. Credit Suisse now sees his resuscitation of the chain as a one-time event. Ouch. Either way, Thursday’s  numbers suggest real turmoil for these storied brands and Fast Eddie, as he’s been called, is facing a difficult environment for his re-reclamation project with the housing market flagging and credit drying up. These larger forces may ultimately be what forces him to run a blue-light special and get some value while he still can.