April car sales crash and burn
No one was mincing words this week following the April automotive sales results. JPMorgan said Ford’s sales were “weaker than expected,” Credit Suisse said total sales were “awful” and Morgan Stanley was unequivocal: “The bottom just fell out,” it said, describing April as “the worst month in a decade.”
April sales amounted to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million vehicles, troublingly below the 15 million estimate compiled by Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research.
In April, Ford posted a 19% decline in monthly sales. The consensus was for a 14% decline. General Motors sales fell 23% while Chrysler was down 29%. Both were wider than expected.

The culprit is obvious. Widespread weakness in the economy, and oil that seems to hit new highs daily, does not make for a good car buying environment. With many economists predicting a coming recession, it’s a wonder that anyone is looking to spend thousands of dollars on a new car. Tellingly, truck sales fell 24% while car sales were down 3%. In this kind of atmosphere, its not surprising at all that the vehicles that need the most gas were the ones least desired.
“These trends suggest that the recent strength in auto-sector socks is misplaced, or at least ill-timed,” Credit Suisse wrote, adding that the April results could indicate weakness in May as well.
Morgan Stanley forecast a SAAR estimate of 15.1 million for May, down from the 16.3 million posted in May, 2007.


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