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Archive for May 8th, 2008

The anti- anti-decoupling theory

May 08, 2008 By: Michelle Rama Category: Economy, General No Comments →

Standard & Poor’s knows that decoupling theory is just a misplaced, unproven “dream,” but then again, maybe it doesn’t.

S&P’s Latin America economist Alfredo Coutino, in a note titled, “Latin American Decoupling: Myth or Reality?” backed into his decoupling theory by acknowledging that history has disproved any notion that the rest of the world can escape unscathed when the U.S. is ailing.

“However, there are strong reasons to believe that, at a regional or country level, the decoupling could be a reality this time,” he wrote. He said that stronger macroeconomic conditions in Latin America should enable it to decouple from the U.S. recessionary cycle this year. Latin America

“Most of the countries have been correcting their disequilibria, implementing structural reforms, and some are taking advantage of the recent commodity boom in order to save and invest more aggressively,” Coutino wrote. “Indeed, something is different in the world economy this time, which could make the decoupling theory more a reality than a myth.”

The ratings agency noted in another recent report that record-high oil prices and the U.S. recession have slowed growth in most industrial countries and the global economy, but emerging markets nonetheless will benefit from record-high commodity prices and the shifts in world growth patterns.

High commodity prices are a problem for industrial countries, S&P chief economist David Wyss wrote, but will likely keep emerging markets on the rise. “While Latin America and the OPEC countries are the greatest beneficiaries, sub-Saharan Africa is also a winner, averaging 5.4% real growth over the past five years, perhaps its best performance in history. Although we think commodity prices will moderate from current levels, they will remain high enough to keep these economies strong,” he added.

It may be hard to prove, since emerging markets have rebounded with U.S. equities in the latest month after falling with U.S. equities in March.

S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt said in another report this week that world equity markets began to recover in April, “on the hope and belief that the world, and especially the U.S., is near the bottom of the problems facing the credit market.”

Last month, developed markets posted a 5.15% gain in April after losing 8.95% in March. Likewise, emerging markets climbed 7.49% in April after falling 5.11% the month before, S&P said. Double-digit gains were posted during the month for both China (15.1% growth after declining 12.36% in March) and India (a 11.49% increase versus a 12.35% drop in March).

Visa helps New York charge ahead in global IPO underwriting

May 08, 2008 By: Casey Logan Category: General No Comments →

New York City is ready to reclaim its throne.

After two consecutive years of losing to London as the leading location for pricings of global initial public stock offerings, it looks like the Big Apple is on track to finish the year back on top, according to a recent report from Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research.

Using data pulled from the Securities Data Co.’s Platinum database, the report found that, so far this year, companies have raised $23.64 billion on the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, and the American Stock Exchange combined, representing a nearly 73% increase in proceeds from the comparable year-ago period. Of course, the $17.9 billion offering from credit card processor Visa Inc. in March contributed a great deal to the growth. But, “take away the Visa offering and New York would have a collective volume of about $5.7 billion,” the report found.

Meanwhile, the London Stock Exchange and the London Alternative Investment Market together have recorded $498.9 million in global IPO proceeds through the first fourth months of 2008, which is down 96% from $14.76 billion in the comparable year-ago period.

Who will win the battle for the title of IPO King come year end? It could be New York, based on the Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research data, but there is eight months to go.

Downsize the saturated fat, supersize the profits

May 08, 2008 By: Greg Saulnier Category: General No Comments →

Summer is fast approaching and bathing suits are awakening from their winter hibernation, so for one Credit Suisse analyst now was the time to shed those unwanted pounds with a rigorous 30-day diet - of nothing but McDonald’s.

That’s right - Credit Suisse analyst Keith Siegner took a page out of Morgan Spurlock’s playbook and dared to take on Ronald in a month-long battle of wills in an effort to show that even without further development, fast food can be considered synonymous with health living.

“As one of the first industries subject to health-related scrutiny, we believe quick-service restaurants [QSRs] will ultimately benefit from earlier product innovation and will potentially gain share from less convenient but currently perceived healthier concepts while scrutiny migrates towards other categories and industries,” Seigner said of his experiment.

Among the QSRs that Credit Suisse feels will lead the movement, McDonald’s jumped out ahead of the pack with what Siegner calls “early-moving and trail-blazing” efforts, but the analyst is also looking to Burger King, KFC, and Taco Bell to use imminent new product launches and marketing campaigns to gain healthful product share in the near future.

With McDonald’s identified as Siegner’s leading candidate, he set out to exercise “proper” item selection and portion control to prove that fast-food outlets are well positioned to turn potential regulation and evolving consumer preferences into opportunities to drive “healthy” sales and profits. The results? Through consuming roughly 30 chicken sandwiches, 27 salads, and 14 burgers ( resulting in an April diet total of 52,020 calories, 1,534 grams of fat including 472 grams of saturated fat, 142.3 grams of sodium and 3,165 grams of protein), Seigner actually lost five pounds and lowered his LDL (bad) cholesterol by 36 points, while his HDL (good) cholesterol barely moved. His overall cholesterol fell by over 20%, his sodium level declined a touch, his blood pressure declined and his resting hear rate was only 50 beats per minute.

“I ate more fast food over the course of April than I had since maybe last summer, when I tasted every burger from all the QSRs as due diligence (including some twice),” Seigner said. “The point is; I didn’t totally deprive myself. I just exercised moderation when eating the less healthful options.

Not only does Seigner see potential for the national fast-food chains to capitalize on the healthy-conscience consumer, but he also sees a “solid” opportunity for regional concepts with active product development programs, customer bases that would be responsive to healthful options and creative marketing to exploit such efforts, such as Jack in the Box, Sonic, and others.

Consumers did take notice in April. McDonald’s said Thursday that its global same-store sales for April rose 5% versus the year-ago period, and U.S. comparable-store sales increased 2%.

Thursday’s Market Focus

May 08, 2008 By: Staff Category: Morning Market Focus No Comments →

thursdays-market-focus

Wall Street is looking at a higher open Thursday ahead of a flood of retail sales reports, with a modest dip in oil prices underpinning gains.

Earnings from News Corp. and Best Buy Co.’s $2 billion acquisition of a 50% stake in the retail operations of U.K. company Carphone Warehouse also will supply an early focus.

According to spread bettors IG Index, the Dow Jones industrial average is expected to open up 60 points at 12,874. S&P 500 futures rose 4 to 1,399.30 while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 4 to 1,964.50.

Wall Street tumbled Wednesday as the price of a barrel of oil soared to a record near $124. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 206.48, or 1.59%, to close at 12,814.35, the Nasdaq composite index dropped 44.82, or 1.8%, to 2,438.49, and the S&P 500 lost 25.69, or 1.81%, to 1,392.57. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.85% from 3.92% late Tuesday, and light, sweet crude rose $1.69 to settle at $123.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Initial jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET, 370,000 estimate
  • Wholesale inventories for March, 10 a.m. ET, 0.5% estimate
  • Wholesale sales for March, 10 a.m. ET, 0.7% estimate
  • Retailers release sales figures for April

EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS:

Company                 Symbol    Period     Estimate
American Intl Group       AIG       1Q       $  (.76)
Barr Pharmaceuticals      BRL       1Q           .78
Cablevision Systems       CVC       1Q           .02
Celgene Corp.             CELG      1Q           .34
Dynegy Inc.               DYN       1Q           .05
Edison International      EIX       1Q           .92
El Paso Corp.             EP        1Q           .30
King Pharmaceuticals      KG        1Q           .35
Nasdaq OMX Group          NDAQ      1Q           .49
Nvidia Corp.              NVDA      1Q           .38

Figures in parentheses denote losses.

AFTER-HOURS ACTION:

After Wednesday’s closing bell, News Corp. reported that its latest quarterly earnings more than tripled to $2.69 billion on a one-time gain from a stock exchange with Liberty Media Corp. A number of number of the nation’s largest oil companies - including Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips - have reportedly agreed to pay $423 million to settle litigation over the gas additive MTBE.

Crocs Inc. said it swung to a first-quarter loss, but the shoe company reaffirmed its full-year outlook and guided for adjusted second-quarter earnings above Wall Street’s estimates.