The anti- anti-decoupling theory
Standard & Poor’s knows that decoupling theory is just a misplaced, unproven “dream,” but then again, maybe it doesn’t.
S&P’s Latin America economist Alfredo Coutino, in a note titled, “Latin American Decoupling: Myth or Reality?” backed into his decoupling theory by acknowledging that history has disproved any notion that the rest of the world can escape unscathed when the U.S. is ailing.
“However, there are strong reasons to believe that, at a regional or country level, the decoupling could be a reality this time,” he wrote. He said that stronger macroeconomic conditions in Latin America should enable it to decouple from the U.S. recessionary cycle this year. 
“Most of the countries have been correcting their disequilibria, implementing structural reforms, and some are taking advantage of the recent commodity boom in order to save and invest more aggressively,” Coutino wrote. “Indeed, something is different in the world economy this time, which could make the decoupling theory more a reality than a myth.”
The ratings agency noted in another recent report that record-high oil prices and the U.S. recession have slowed growth in most industrial countries and the global economy, but emerging markets nonetheless will benefit from record-high commodity prices and the shifts in world growth patterns.
High commodity prices are a problem for industrial countries, S&P chief economist David Wyss wrote, but will likely keep emerging markets on the rise. “While Latin America and the OPEC countries are the greatest beneficiaries, sub-Saharan Africa is also a winner, averaging 5.4% real growth over the past five years, perhaps its best performance in history. Although we think commodity prices will moderate from current levels, they will remain high enough to keep these economies strong,” he added.
It may be hard to prove, since emerging markets have rebounded with U.S. equities in the latest month after falling with U.S. equities in March.
S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt said in another report this week that world equity markets began to recover in April, “on the hope and belief that the world, and especially the U.S., is near the bottom of the problems facing the credit market.”
Last month, developed markets posted a 5.15% gain in April after losing 8.95% in March. Likewise, emerging markets climbed 7.49% in April after falling 5.11% the month before, S&P said. Double-digit gains were posted during the month for both China (15.1% growth after declining 12.36% in March) and India (a 11.49% increase versus a 12.35% drop in March).



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