Is Starbucks losing steam?
Do you hear that sound? Listen closely. It’s the sound of your bank account plummeting. With gas prices climbing to an all-time high and food prices soaring, many Americans are finding themselves with a lot less money in the bank. Which is not great news for Starbucks Corp.
The coffee-giant on Tuesday said it plans to close 600 unprofitable stores in the next year as cash-strapped consumers forgo $4 lattes for cheaper alternatives and home-brewed varieties. Starbucks had previously planned for only 100 closures.
“While we expected more than the original 100 closings, we were surprised by the magnitude of this announcement,” Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kron said in a client note. Given that the stores were unprofitable, Kron expects the closing to be incrementally positive to the company’s margins: the portfolio effect of closing unprofitable stores, and the reverse cannibalization benefit to surrounding stores’ sales. “If this benefit were 25% per store, as management indicated it may be, the benefit could be 2% to company same-store sales if each of the closed stores realized this benefit,” Kron said.
Deutsche Bank analyst Marc Greenberg agreed that the closures should provide some benefit to aggregate store-level profits and same-store sales. However, he expects the benefit to be offset by a de-leverage on fixed costs because of lost sales. Greenberg said the fact that Starbucks has taken “such aggressive action” to close additional stores suggests fundamentals remain “challenging.”
So, just how many bucks will this aggressive plan be costing Starbucks?
Given the planned closures, the coffee company expects to record pretax charges of $328 million to $348 million, including $200 million of asset write-offs to be recorded in the third quarter, $120 million to $140 million in lease termination costs in the fourth quarter and first half of 2009, and $8 million in severance costs in tandem with store closures.
William Blair & Co. analyst Sharon Zackfia said the underperforming locations are “roughly half as productive as the average store volume of about $1 million.” So, assuming roughly $500,000 in annualized per-unit sales, Zackfia said the closures would lessen overall sales by about $300 million.
Ouch. That’s got to burn.









Markets-hub.com