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Archive for the ‘Earnings’

Is Starbucks losing steam?

July 02, 2008 By: Casey Logan Category: Earnings, General No Comments →

Do you hear that sound? Listen closely. It’s the sound of your bank account plummeting. With gas prices climbing to an all-time high and food prices soaring, many Americans are finding themselves with a lot less money in the bank. Which is not great news for Starbucks Corp.

The coffee-giant on Tuesday said it plans to close 600 unprofitable stores in the next year as cash-strapped consumers forgo $4 lattes for cheaper alternatives and home-brewed varieties. Starbucks had previously planned for only 100 closures.starbucks

“While we expected more than the original 100 closings, we were surprised by the magnitude of this announcement,” Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kron said in a client note. Given that the stores were unprofitable, Kron expects the closing to be incrementally positive to the company’s margins: the portfolio effect of closing unprofitable stores, and the reverse cannibalization benefit to surrounding stores’ sales. “If this benefit were 25% per store, as management indicated it may be, the benefit could be 2% to company same-store sales if each of the closed stores realized this benefit,” Kron said.

Deutsche Bank analyst Marc Greenberg agreed that the closures should provide some benefit to aggregate store-level profits and same-store sales. However, he expects the benefit to be offset by a de-leverage on fixed costs because of lost sales. Greenberg said the fact that Starbucks has taken “such aggressive action” to close additional stores suggests fundamentals remain “challenging.”

So, just how many bucks will this aggressive plan be costing Starbucks?

Given the planned closures, the coffee company expects to record pretax charges of $328 million to $348 million, including $200 million of asset write-offs to be recorded in the third quarter, $120 million to $140 million in lease termination costs in the fourth quarter and first half of 2009, and $8 million in severance costs in tandem with store closures.

William Blair & Co. analyst Sharon Zackfia said the underperforming locations are “roughly half as productive as the average store volume of about $1 million.” So, assuming roughly $500,000 in annualized per-unit sales, Zackfia said the closures would lessen overall sales by about $300 million.

Ouch. That’s got to burn.

VeraSun delays ethanol plant opening as corn price spiral upward

June 25, 2008 By: Ryan Vlastelica Category: Earnings No Comments →

High energy prices have taken another casualty, following Dow Chemical’s Tuesday announcement that it would be upping prices and idling its production. On Wednesday, VeraSun Energy said that though it had completed construction on an ethanol plant that could produce 110 million gallons per year, it would be delaying the opening of the plant indefinitely. This is the third ethanol plant of this capacity that the company has delayed in recent times.

Given the sky-high demand for ethanol, it may be surprising that VeraSun would limit its production ability, but not all think so. Piper Jaffary, in a note to clients, wrote that the delays were a “smart move” by the company.

verasun

“While the closing reduces near-term revenue and earnings, VeraSun has, in our view, correctly realized that the supply of ethanol must remain tight to insure ethanol prices stay above $2.80 per gallon.”

At this price, it said, the company can “tread water” at about 3 cents per gallon operating profit until the ethanol-corn “crush margin” was more favorable.

Corn prices are anything but favorable these days, after having risen about 65% since April, largely on flooding in the Midwest, where major crops are grown. In a June 19 note, BB&T Capital Markets wrote that the flooding was “wreaking havoc on people’s lives as well as the commodity markets.”

Noting VeraSun’s decision to delay plant openings, BB&T said it expected delays or cancellations to continue “as sustained cost relief is not foreseeable at this some and some producers may not want to bring facilities on line as that would trigger interest payments on construction in progress financing.”

Google’s answer to comScore may not ad up to much

June 25, 2008 By: Ryan Vlastelica Category: Earnings No Comments →

Google is one of the wunderstocks of the technology sector, with a mammoth market cap and a stock that has increased five-fold since its trading debut in 2004. Not only has the name become synonymous with search engines, but it is one of the few companies (along with FedEx and Xerox) where the name is used as a verb. So it’s understandable that when Google makes a foray into a new service, those who currently provide that function get a little fearful.

comscore

The Wall Street Journal reported that Google was planning to unveil a new, free product (called AdPlanner) that would directly challenge comScore and Nielson Online. Shares of the comScore, which measures Internet usage, plunged as much as 22% in Tuesday trades.

But the shares gained back some ground on Wednesday, rising 7% as analysts questioned how much of an impact AdPlanner would really have. Oppenheimer said the product was “unlikely to be embraced by top advertisers,” expecting small and medium-sized businesses, “which typically do not buy comScore products, and which are looking to establish cost-effective display advertising,” to be the top buyers.

google

Oppenheimer also speculated that Google would gather the information by using a combination of inference techniques and its own data, coming from such sources as Gmail, iGoogle and the Google toolbar. “This is likely to create quality of data and privacy issues.”

ThinkPanmure analyst said Google’s methods were “likely to overstate audiences,” and that there was a “general and significant distrust of Google among media buyers.”

The firm maintained its buy rating on comScore, while Oppenheimer recommended investors by comScore on weakness.

The optimism of the firms was widespread, and some seemed to say AdPlanner would find little success at all. ThinkPanmure referenced Sarah Fay, the chief executive of Aegis North America who was quoted in the Wall Street Journal. She said, “For an advertiser, the last thing you want to do is to have your adviser be the same person you are spending your money with.”

Dow has a chemical romance with high prices

June 24, 2008 By: Ryan Vlastelica Category: Earnings 1 Comment →

High energy costs have impacted the economy in nearly every way imaginable, from hitting the airline, car and restaurant sectors to providing a serious hurdle for summer travel. One of the most dramatic casualties to the prices has been Dow Chemical, which has raised its prices by at least 20% on two separate occasions in the past month because of higher costs.

The first 20% increase came on May 28, with the second arriving Tuesday, as Dow upped its prices by 25%. The company also said it would implement a freight surcharge for trucks and rail, as well as idle or reduce its production at plants across the globe. The May reduction “helped,” Dow said, though not by enough to fully recover costs. The company noted that its bill for hydrocarbon feedstocks and energy quadrupled from $8 billion in 2002 to more than $32 billion this year. It’s a hard pill for anyone to swallow. oxide plant

The price increase is effective in July, while the freight surcharge ($300 for trucks and $600 for rail) is effective Aug. 1.

So far the reaction has been mixed. Bank of America said the price measures were necessary to combat stagflationary pressure, while Credit Suisse was suspicious of the plans to idle capacity. “You don’t idle capacity when you have pricing power, you raise prices,” the firm wrote, adding that capacity was only idled as a last resort, “when the market is bad and you don’t expect to recover fixed costs.”

“What these initiatives are telling us is that pricing power is weak, and Dow is trying to bring supply down to where demand is.”

Some of the measures to idle production were extreme. Worldwide oxide production will be reduced by 25% while North American acrylic acid production will be stayed 30%. Dow’s European styrene production capacity will be idled by 40%.

These measures won’t simply impact Dow, the world’s largest chemical company, but also its customers. Citigroup wrote that high freight costs would prompt customers to look towards consolidating their packaging purchases, bad news for such plastic packagers as Pactiv and Sealed Air, both of which traded down on Tuesday (Dow lost about 1% from its opening price, trading at $37.20).

On May 28, after the first price hike was announced, analysts said the measure would hurt margins at plastic packagers. Goldman Sachs wrote that the price hike highlights “the continued challenges facing the plastics-based flexible packagers … for whom resin in the largest input cost.”

“If energy prices continue to rise, as our Goldman Sachs Energy Research team expects, we see potential downside risk to both companies’ (Sealed Air and Pactiv) guidance, as the lower end of the guidance range for each assumes resin costs at April levels,” the firm wrote.

It added that resin prices were “highly correlated” with energy prices and that there was an inverse relation between resin and share prices of Sealed Air and Pactiv.

Price of Texas tea could take a bite out of restaurant results

June 19, 2008 By: Ryan Vlastelica Category: Earnings, Economy No Comments →

Perhaps the biggest economic concern faced today is the skyrocketing price of oil, which seems to hit new highs on a daily basis. The sharp increase has had profound ramifications for many industries, notably the airline and car sectors, where gas prices are forcing changes in business models and creating increasingly hesitant customers. Given their direct connection to gas prices, it’s not surprising that those groups would suffer in this environment, but Credit Suisse is speculating that gas prices will create a casualty seeming unrelated to black gold: the restaurant sector.

In a note to clients, Credit Suisse singled out Sonic and Cheesecake Factory as two companies that could be hurt as customers reduce driving. Sonic in particular has a “disproportionate market dependence” on driving, the firm wrote, which is logical given Sonic’s eating model (the company refers to itself as “America’s Drive-In”).

sonic

“Sonic’s core markets are those most heavily dependent on driving vs. public transportation,” the firm wrote, noting that the company’s Oklahoma City market is first in the nation for consumer reliance on gas.

Cheesecake Factory is also expected to suffer from high gas prices, though perhaps not to the same extent as Sonic. Other macroeconomic factors could also hurt it, including its reliance on retail shopping for traffic and an above-average need for produce. As Daniel Plainview, the evil oil baron in “There Will Be Blood” once screamed, “I drink your milkshake! Or I would, restaurant chains, if I could afford it.”

Credit Suisse downgraded both Sonic and Cheesecake Factory to neutral from outperform and both fell to multi-year lows as a result. Sonic shares hit an intraday low of $15.65, their lowest price since September 2004, while Cheesecake Factory’s intraday low of $16.59 was their lowest price since October 2001.

But not all restaurants are expected to take a hit from gas prices. Credit Suisse noted that Texas Roadhouse was opening locations near residential areas, which could make it a gas tank-friendly place to drive to as customers look to spend their rebate checks.

New York to online retailers: Drop dead

June 06, 2008 By: Ryan Vlastelica Category: Earnings, Economy No Comments →

A frequent complaint of Empire Staters is that New York has one of the highest tax rates in the nation. Those dissenting voices are apt to get a little louder now, as a law signed by Governor David Paterson created a sales tax for online purchases, making New York one of the first states to have such a plan.

There’s an old saying that no tax is a good tax, so there’s no surprise that online retailers Amazon and Overstock have already filed lawsuits challenging the tax, claiming it unconstitutional. But legality aside, will the tax really have much of an effect on online purchases in the state, which accounts for about 6% of total U.S. sales?

online shopping sales tax

The measure is expected to raise about $50 million; a paltry sum as far as the budget goes, especially for a state as heavily populated as New York. In a research note, Deutsche Bank speculated that the new tax would only have a minimal tax on most online retailers, though it could pose a bigger issue for high-end luxury retailers.

The firm estimated that the impact of the law would be less than a penny a share for most companies in 2009, and that it wouldn’t impact online retailers by more than $1 in equity value. This is even if spending slows and some customers cease online purchases, an outcome Deutsche Bank doubts. “Because we estimate Amazon’s average order value to be in the $50-$60 range,” it said, “we don’t expect consumers to radically pull back on the spending, given taxes, on a dollar basis, is immaterial.”

The minimal impact for smaller orders goes to explain why Deutsche Bank sees bigger repercussions for such high-end retailers as Blue Nile, where the estimated average ticket value is $1,600. “Items with a higher basket value could cause incremental hesitation in shopping behavior, especially if tax becomes a factor in the shopping process,” the firm wrote. “With the backdrop of a tough consumer spending environment and a likely curb in luxury goods spending, we estimate 25% of consumers could choose alternatives through traditional channels.”

The firm expects that Blue Nile’s 2009 earnings could take a hit of 2 cents a share from the tax, despite New York’s reputation as a “tier-two city” for the company’s sales (Blue Nile’s biggest markets are San Francisco, Austin and Boston).

The full impact of the tax is yet to be seen, but it’s likely that if online sales don’t slow too much, other states may try and legislate similar taxes. This would only heighten the constitutionally question. Deutsche Bank didn’t go so far as to say it was unconstitutional, but it did say that it “certainly goes against the grain of Quill Corp. vs. North Dakota, as it leaves open the idea that any affiliate, rep, agent, salesperson that steps into the state will create a tax nexus for a company.”

GTA IV’s behind the wheel, and Take-Two is along for the ride

June 06, 2008 By: Greg Saulnier Category: Earnings No Comments →

One day after Take-Two Interactive’s “Grand Theft Auto IV” drove the company’s second-quarter profits well beyond Wall Street’s consensus, investors found themselves pushing the stock to a three-year high and doing donuts in the parking lot. For the New York-based game designer, however, the question is not whether GTA IV is behind the wheel, but rather where the car is headed. GTA IV

Since Electronic Arts made a $26-per-share unsolicited bid for Take-Two in late February, a merger appeared to be the video-game maker’s next stop. Some analysts, including Citigroup’s Brent Thill, still say that’s ultimately where the company’s road will come to an end. “The most likely outcome is Electronic Arts acquires Take-Two for between $28 and $30,” Thill said in a note to clients. “[W]e believe Take-Two management is a seller and the deal is a strong strategic fit for Electronic Arts and would provide strong upside to its financial targets of $6 billion in revenue of 25% operating margins in fiscal 2011.” As for the likely timing of a deal, Thill said EA would like to close the merger by September to control holiday season distribution of Take-Two’s cash cow, GTA IV, and could walk if timing of the acquisition jeopardized that outcome.

There are yet other, perhaps less obvious roads Take-Two can venture down. Thill places the odds of a media company acquiring Take-Two at 30%, noting that while media companies do not have Electronic Arts’ natural synergies, Grand Theft Auto IV results are likely to get the attention of a media industry starved for growth. “Take-Two would make a natural fit for a media company given its portfolio of original Internet protocol,” Thill said, “and Chairman Strauss Zelnick is a media industry veteran with strong industry relationships, including with Time Warner Chairman Dick Parsons.” Another option would be for Take-Two to remain independent, but Thill puts the odds of that at 10% given the company’s contract negotiations with its Rockstar development team whose contract is up for renewal in February 2009, which would likely pressure shares.

Still, owning the rights to GTA IV, which management indicated has shipped 11 million units to date, is not a bad position to be in. The company Thursday posted second-quarter earnings of $1.52 a share, handily topping the mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters of $1.13 a share. Revenue for the three months more than doubled to $539.8 million from $205.4 million a year earlier. Grand Theft Auto IV sales accounted for roughly $379 million.

But as PacificCrest analyst Evan Wilson points out, its not as easy as just riding shotgun for Take-Two’s management, which the firm said has not been able to meet its goals as costs are far higher than expected and game delays continue.

Unsafe kids could be a danger to Trojan’s bottom line

June 05, 2008 By: Ryan Vlastelica Category: Earnings No Comments →

Trojan is one of the most iconic brand names in America, and along with Coca-Cola and Kleenex, is one of the few companies with a name synonymous with its product. So it’s not insignificant when the Center for Disease Control releases a survey (the ominously-named Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) suggesting that condom use is down among high-schoolers while sexual activity is rising.

According to the report, condom use in 2007 dropped 2% from 2005 levels while sexual activity rose 2% in the same period. The percentage of high-schoolers who have had sex is now 48%, while the percentage of sexually active teens (who had sex within three months of participating in the survey) was 35%. Condom use among sexually active high-schoolers dropped to 61.5% (this number doesn’t consider use of other contraceptives).

trojan

While this suggests a number of obvious social and health-related issues, it could also be bad news for Trojan’s bottom line, which represents about 70% of all condom sales.

The company didn’t return calls for a comment or sales data, but in a May 6 press release, Church & Dwight (which owns Trojan) announced two new Trojan lines (Magnum Thin and Thintensity) and said it would increase second-quarter marketing spending on its products,  including Arm & Hammer baking soda.

The economic implications of the study are unknown. Connie Maneaty, who covers Church & Dwight for BMO Capital Markets, said she couldn’t “hazard a guess” as to how less teen usage would affect Trojan sales. “I don’t know what percentage of condom sales go to teenagers,” she said. “I couldn’t quantify the impact of this.”

Maneaty wasn’t too concerned about the lower usage from a sales perspective, however. “These things ebb and flow,” she said. “Teens think they’re invincible, then they realize they’re not, so they take better care of themselves.”

In other words, there may be hope that any ground that Trojan is losing with that age group now may be made up by the group a few years from now.