Apple ups its game with iPhone 3G
The BlackBerry smartphone better watch its back. A faster, cheaper - and maybe even smarter - phone is within weeks of hitting the market. Rival Apple Inc. has finally launched its long awaited next-generation iPhone, which will be compatible with 3G networks and priced from $199 (8 gigabyte model), half of the first generation’s current price. The new corporate-friendly version, due out July 11, will also provide a faster Internet connection and compatibility with Microsoft Outlook, the popular corporate e-mail system.
Calyon Securities analyst Charles Park said Apple’s aggressive pricing strategy should be viewed, in general, as “negative” for handset vendors like Research In Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, as he expects competition in the smartphone segment to increase. “Although Research In Motion remains the definitive leader in the business segment with the largest amount of U.S. market share and close competition with Windows Mobile worldwide, the Canadian company could experience a deceleration of its growth going onwards,” Park said in a client note. 
At Deutsche Bank, analyst Chris Whitmore said the iPhone 3G, which features built-in GPS, faster speeds and enhanced battery life, could create a potential threat to Apple’s own iPod music player. “The lower price point will likely impact iPod unit sales, perhaps increasing cannibalization of the iPod touch, a trade-off Apple is more than willing to make due to the subsidies associated with the iPhone and dramatically expanded reach/global distribution.”
In addition to unveiling its next generation iPhone, the Cupertino, Calif.-based maker of computers and electronics announced on Monday changes in its iPhone business model. Specifically, Apple said it will no longer receive follow-on revenue generating payments from carriers for the iPhone 3G beyond the purchase of the phone by carriers or a commission on sales of the phone by Apple.
Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey said that while there is a lack of clarity around the changes in Apple’s iPhone business model, once “the smoke clears” he expects the iPhone 3G to be more competitive. “[T]he changes in Apple’s iPhone business model will in some ways overshadow the 3G iPhone product announcement and will undoubtedly increase the volatility in the shares near term. That said, we expect the move from a revenue-sharing payment model to a subsidy model with the carries to be essentially revenue neutral to Apple, while the lower price points will drive incremental iPhone units.”
Several other analysts responded to the news by raising their iPhone sales estimates. Lehman Brothers analyst Ben Reitzes now expects fiscal 2008 iPhone unit sales of 23 million, up from his previous projection of 14.8 million. Merrill Lynch analyst Jeff Fidacaro lifted his iPhone unit estimates to 22 million from 20 million in fiscal 2009 and to 34 million from 30 million in fiscal 2010. At Citigroup, Richard Gardner boosted his calendar-year 2009 unit estimate to 23 million from 26 million and his calendar-year 2010 unit estimate to 28 million from 20 million.




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