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McDonald’s Golden Arches shine abroad - but is it enough?

April 22, 2008 By: Casey Logan Category: Earnings No Comments →

More than half of the countries in the world are home to a McDonald’s. So when the U.S economy is being battered by a housing slump and a credit crunch, the hamburger chain should be pretty safe, right? Well, maybe not. McDonald’s may have served up a beefy first-quarter report this morning, but slowing U.S. sales trends tripped up the multi-billion dollar international corporation.

McDonald’s, which operates in more than 100 countries worldwide, posted net income of $946.1 million, or 81 cents a share, on revenue of $5.61 billion. Results handily topped Wall Street estimates, which called for first-quarter profit of 70 cents a share on revenue of $5.4 billion. But, while U.S. sales in restaurants opened for at least a year climbed 2.9% during the quarter, the fast food company said U.S. sales fell in March for the first time in five years - news that put pressure on McDonald’s shares throughout the day.

According to JPMorgan analyst John Ivankoe, the list of possible explanations for the softened March comparable sales include the Easter shift, a difficult U.S. consumer environment, the slightly worsening employment market, the lack of new major product introduction, and more difficult comparisons. However, Ivankoe said there are still many positives that outweigh the U.S. March sales data.

“Slightly negative March comps in the U.S. [are] not too concerning given improvement in April, modeled expectations, and upcoming major new product platforms,” Ivankoe said, pointing to April’s introduction of the new, Southern Style Chicken sandwiches and the new beverage platform.

Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kron said he, too, expects April results to show some acceleration. “Aside from this data point, overall business momentum appears very strong as McDonald’s continues to flex its global strength and capital muscle,” he said in a client note.

McDonald’s management expects April comparable sales to improve to 2% to 2.5%.

Will Americans be lovin’ it in April?

Extra day helps McDonald’s leap ahead in February

March 10, 2008 By: Casey Logan Category: Earnings No Comments →

McDonald’s sure gave something for investors to smile about on Monday. The Golden Arches reported February same-store global sales rose a better-than-expected 11.7%, helped in part by the month’s extra selling day for the leap year. The fast-food chain said burgers and chicken sandwiches drove Europe comparable sales up 15.4% for the month, while the breakfast menu and premium roast coffee fueled a 8.3% increase in the U.S. Meanwhile, in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, same-store sales gained 10.9% for the month, while the leap year added about 4% to global sales.

“These results are very strong absolutely and far exceed our expectations,” Bear Stearns analyst Joseph Buckley said in a client note. Buckley had estimated February same-store sales would rise 5.7% on a worldwide basis, with the U.S. up 3.1%, Europe up 5.9% and Asia, the Middle East and Africa up 12.3%.

Buckley said the February sales report should be viewed “very favorably” on Wall Street with the combination of stronger U.S. performance after two slower months and the double digit European same-store sales gains. He raised his earnings estimates for the first-quarter of 2008 to 71 cents from 68 cents a share and for the full-year to $3.20 from $3.17 a share.

At Goldman Sachs, analyst Steven Kron said the U.S. February same-store sales result was the standout and should mitigate near-term concerns of macro pressures weighing on the business. “We continue to believe that McDonald’s is well-positioned to navigate through domestic economic challenges given its tiered menu platform which offers broadly appealing mix of every day value and premium new product news,” Kron said in a note.

Kron added that the fast-food purveyor’s continuing global strength should warrant a premium for those investors looking for international exposure beyond just currency gains. He raised his earnings estimates to 68 cents from 67 cents a share for the first quarter and to $3.18 from $3.17 a share for 2008.

The mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial is for first-quarter earnings of 67 cents a share and 2008 earnings of $3.18 a share.

McDonald’s, a Dow Industrial component, saw its stock rally 3.4%, or $1.80, to $54.07 in midday trading. Earlier, the stock hit session-high of $54.69.

A retail glass more than a little half-full

March 07, 2008 By: Christie Rizk Category: Economy No Comments →

About 60% of retailers posted February same-store sales results above analysts’ expectations, according to Thomson Proprietary Research.

The index Thursday posted a February same-store sales increase of 2.2%, topping the mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial for an increase of 1.2%, but still missing last year’s 2.6% increase. Excluding Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the index posted a 1.8% increase, compared with the analyst estimate of a 1.3% increase.

The drug sector has posted the best results with an increase in same-store sales of 6.3%, and the department store sector is the worst performer with a decline of 4.2%. Analysts were expecting a 4.7% increase in the drug sector’s same-store sales, and a 2.8% decline in the department store sector.

Buckle reported the biggest increase in same-store sales with an increase of 24.3%. The company has also posted the biggest surprise, beating the mean estimate of analysts for a same-store sales increase of only 11%.

However, a lack of compelling fashion trends is hurting women’s apparel retailers, Thomson said. Chico’s FAS Inc. reported the lowest same-store sales in the index, posting a decline of 14.9% compared with analyst estimates for a decline of 13%, followed by Stein Mart with a decline of 10.4%.

Wet Seal Inc. reported the biggest miss with a decline of 8.2% compared with the analyst estimate of a decrease of 2.2%.

Wal-Mart posted a same-store sales gain of 2.6%, beating the estimate for a gain of 1.1%. The company attributed its strong sales to its grocery, health and wellness and entertainment segments, and said its home division continued to be weak because of the slumping housing market.

The discounters in general did well in February with the sector posting a 3% increase in same-store sales, compared with analyst predictions of a 1.6% increase. Excluding Wal-Mart, the sector’s same-store sales rose 3.9%, compared with analyst estimates of a 2.9% increase.

And as previously predicted, department stores are posting weak comparisons for February. Gottschalk’s Inc. reported a decline of 9.5%, and Stage Stores Inc. posted a drop of 2.5%, compared with analyst estimates of a decline of 1% for the month. Bon-Ton Stores Inc. posted a decline of 7.2%, compared with analyst estimate of a decline of 5%.